IMF海灣國家今年盈余將縮水
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)表示，由于國內投資加大且石油價格回落，預計今年海灣地區石油出口國的經常賬戶盈余將下降。
Gulf oil exporters’ current account surpluses are expected to fall this year on rising domestic investment and softer oil prices, said the International Monetary Fund said.
然而，這些國家在全球范圍內收購國際性企業和房地產的投資熱情似乎將持續下去。
But the global spending spree undertaken by Gulf states, snapping up international companies and real estate nevertheless looks set to continue.
IMF在其半年一度的中東和中亞地區經濟展望中指出，石油出口國的合計經常賬戶盈余今年將縮減至1800億美元，其占國內生產總值(GDP)的比重將從去年的20%降至13%。IMF和其他經濟學家利用經常賬戶盈余來預測投資者購買外國資產的閑置資金量。
The fund’s half-yearly regional economic outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia region said oil-exporting countries’ combined current account, used by the IMF and other economists to gauge the spare cash investors have to plough into foreign assets, will narrow to 13 per cent of gross domestic product, or $180bn, from 20 per cent of GDP last year.
IMF預測，沙特阿拉伯今年的經常賬戶盈余將下降28%，從去年的960億美元降至約700億美元。
Saudi Arabia’s current account surplus will decline 28 per cent to about $70bn (€52bn, ￡35bn) from $96bn last year, the IMF forecast.
然而，盡管中東和中亞地區的經常賬戶盈余預計將回落，但該地區的經常賬戶累計盈余仍處于高位。自2003年以來，該地區的累計盈余已增至8100億美元，其中海灣阿拉伯國家所占比例為四分之三。
But despite the expected dip in surpluses this year, the cumulative current account surplus for the Middle East and Central Asia region remains high. Since 2003, it has grown to $810bn, with Gulf Arab states accounting for three-quarters of that amount.
IMF中東暨中亞部門主任莫辛汗(Mohsin Khan)表示，現在這些資金流回海外的時機已經成熟。
These funds are ripe for recycling overseas, says Mohsin Khan, IMF Middle East and Central Asia department director.
"自從(去年)該地區股市崩盤以來，投資者已將目光轉向房地產和外國資產，"莫辛汗在接收一次采訪時表示，"他們還著眼于本地區的資產，主要目標為埃及、約旦和北非。"
"Since the regional stock market crash [last year], investors have looked to real estate and foreign assets," said Mr Khan in an interview. "They are also looking at assets around the region, going in a major way into Egypt, along with Jordan and North Africa."
IMF表示，該地區整體前景將繼續明朗。
The general outlook continued to be bright, the IMF said.
經濟改革、有利的全球環境和油價高企令該地區去年的實際GDP增幅達到6.5%，同時使該地區人均收入較2002年高出75%。此輪石油美元熱潮始于2002年。
A combination of economic reforms, a favourable global environment and high oil prices produced real GDP growth across the region of 6.5 per cent last year, bringing up average per capita incomes 75 per cent higher than 2002, the first year of this petrodollar boom.
由于石油將繼續推動經濟增長，預計中東和中亞地區今年的經濟增速將與去年持平。
Economic growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is expected to remain at the same level this year as the oil-driven surge continues.
IMF表示，埃及等新興市場國家將繼續保持強勁增長勢頭。如果國內安全得到改善，在更為強健的制度和更為穩定的政策推動下，伊拉克、阿富汗和蘇丹等爆發過國內沖突的國家應能實現兩位數增長。
Emerging markets such as Egypt would continue to grow strongly, the IMF said. Post-conflict states such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Sudan should jump into double-digit growth on stronger institutions and steadier policies, providing security improved.
