Little Tips:
據《歐洲時報》援引法新社報導,歐洲委員會近日公布的一份研究報告預測,到2050年,歐洲的人口與1995年的相比,可能會減少13%到22%。保加利亞鄉鎮聯合會會長鮑里斯拉夫?鮑里索夫15日警告說,保加利亞人口持續減少,如果政府繼續忽視這一問題,該國將于本世紀中葉出現嚴重的人口危機。日本的人口老化與生育率低落問題可能對這個全球第二大經濟體造成嚴重打擊,因為工作供養退休老人的年輕人越來越少。人口衰退在目前成為一個全球性問題。
衰退的人口:以驚人的速度減小的國家
在二十世紀后半葉,全球人口大爆炸還是令人擔憂的人口問題。70年代,世界銀行行長Robert McNamara甚至還把人口壓力所帶來的威脅與核戰相提并論,然而在今天看來,這種憂慮已經不復存在了。這個世紀悄悄過去了,帶給人們的卻是一個恰恰相反的憂慮:人口衰退開始初露端倪。
盡管俄羅斯和東歐各國人口遞減的具體比例可能不被知曉,但對這一事實人們已經有所了解。實際上,從2005年到2050年,俄羅斯的人口預計會減少22%,而烏克蘭竟然有43%之多。今天這一現象在發達國家也悄然出現:日本人口已經開始遞減,而其他的一些國家,如:意大利和德國,也將步日本的后塵。聯合國有關報告指出,即便是中國,到2030年初期人口也將開始遞減。這份報告同時還指出,到2050年,將有50個國家的人口低于今天的水平。
人口的衰退之所以讓人們擔心,是因為人們相信與之相伴隨的是經濟的衰退。進一步來說,我們有理由認為人口的衰退是經濟因素導致的。因為悲觀會降低出生率卻會提高自殺和酒精中毒的比率。但是,大體上人口降低是由人口出生率過低導致的。而低的人口出生率通常與不斷增進的繁榮相聯系。比如在日本七十年代中期,出生率降至相當于平均每個婦女生2.1個孩子以下,而且在過去的15年里一直明顯的偏低。
但是如果人口衰退不是一般意義上的經濟衰退所導致的后果,那么它確切地說一定是它的一個原因嗎?在某種不確定的意義上,答案是肯定的。隨著人口的衰退,GDP的增長也將緩慢。一些經濟體甚至也開始衰退。其結果將是經濟影響力的喪失。
政府不愿意看到人口的收縮,因為GDP的絕對大小關乎強國的地位。經濟越繁榮,軍隊越強大,地緣政治的影響也就越大。比如在四十年代,美國首次把年GDP評估的引入作為其戰爭成就的一部分。公司也不愿看到人口衰退。因為他們不想自己的國內市場有所收縮。但普通人對此卻并不關心,因為關系他們經濟福利的是人均GDP。
因此,至關重要的問題是人口衰退對人均GDP增長的影響是怎樣的。不利的一面是它將減緩人均GDP的增長,因為適宜工作的人口將比總人口下降的更快一些。然而這也并不一定會發生。生長率的增長將維持人均GDP的增長。由于勞動者的不足和引進增加工人效率的新技術的壓力的增大,勞動者的生產率可能會增長得更快。無論怎樣,即使當人口正在衰退的時候,我們仍然可以通過提高退休年限的方式來增加勞動力的供給。
人們喜歡擔憂--這可能是上年紀的人的癥狀--但圍繞著人口衰退的憂愁卻沒有抓住要害。引發人口老齡化和衰退的新人口問題也有值得慶幸的地方。人類過去掉入高出生率和高死亡率的陷阱,而現在逃到了低出生率和低死亡率的自由之地。女人擁有一種絕對的優勢,那就是對自己生孩子的數量的掌控。在發達國家,對普通人而言,能比六十年代的人多享受十年的生活也同樣是種絕對優勢。政治家可能會擔心他們國家的經濟實力下降。而我們普通人應該為新人口問題所預兆的黃金時代而歡呼。
A fuzzy picture
"THIS is a really exciting time-a new era is starting," says Peter Bazalgette, the chief creative officer of Endemol, the television company behind "Big Brother" and other popular shows. He is referring to the upsurge of interest in mobile television, a nascent industry at the intersection of telecoms and media which offers new opportunities to devicemakers, content producers and mobilenetwork operators.
Already, many mobile operators offer a selection of television channels or individual shows, which are "streamed" across their thirdgeneration (3G) networks. In South Korea, television is also sent to mobile phones via satellite and terrestrial broadcast networks, which is far more efficient than sending video across mobile networks. In Europe, the Italian arm of 3, a mobile operator, recently acquired Canale 7, a television channel, with a view to launching mobileTV broadcasts in Italy in the second half of 2006.
Meanwhile, Apple Computer, which launched a videocapable version of its iPod portable musicplayer in October, is striking deals with television networks to expand the range of shows that can be purchased for viewing on the device, including "Lost", "Desperate Housewives" and "Law & Order".
Despite all this activity, however, the prospects for mobile TV are unclear. For a start, nobody really knows if consumers will pay for it, though surveys suggest they like the idea. Informa, a consultancy, says there will be 125m mobileTV users by 2010. But many other mobile technologies inspired high hopes and then failed to live up to expectations. And even if people do want TV on the move, there is further uncertainty in two areas: technology and business models.
At the moment, mobile TV is mostly streamed over 3G networks. But sending an individual data stream to each viewer is inefficient and will be unsustainable in the long run if mobile TV takes off. So the general consensus is that 3G streaming is a prelude to the construction of dedicated mobileTV broadcast networks, which transmit digital TV signals on entirely different frequencies to those used for voice and data. There are three main standards: DVBH, favoured in Europe; DMB, which has been adopted in South Korea and Japan; and MediaFLO, which is being rolled out in America. Watching TV using any of these technologies requires a TVcapable handset, of course.
In contrast, watching downloaded TV programmes on an iPod or other portable video player is already possible today. And unlike a programme streamed over 3G or broadcast via a dedicated mobileTV network, shows stored on an iPod can be watched on an underground train or in regions with patchy network coverage. That suggests that some shows (such as drama) better suit the download model, while others (such as live news, sports or reality shows) are better suited to realtime transmission. The two approaches will probably coexist.
Just as there are several competing mobileTV technologies, there are also many possible business models. Mobile operators might choose to build their own mobileTV broadcast networks; or they could form a consortium and build a shared network; or existing broadcasters could build such networks.
The big question is whether the broadcasters and mobile operators can agree how to divide the spoils, assuming there are any. Broadcasters own the content, but mobile operators generally control the handsets, and they do not always see eye to eye. In South Korea, a consortium of broadcasters launched a freetoair DMB network last month, but the country’s mobile operators were reluctant to provide their users with handsets able to receive the broadcasts, since they were unwilling to undermine the prospects for their own subscriptionbased mobileTV services.
Then there is the question of who will fund the production of mobileTV content: broadcasters, operators or advertisers? Again, the answer is probably "all of the above".
launch
v.①發射;②使(船)下水;③發動,開展;
n.發射,下水
[真題例句]The debate was launched (v.③) by the Government, which invited anyone with an opinion of the BBC-including ordinary listeners and viewers-to say what was good or bad about the Corporation, and even whether they thought it was worth keeping.[1996年閱讀2]
[例句精譯]這場爭論是英國政府發起的,它邀請每一位對BBC有看法的人--包括普通的聽眾和觀眾--對公司好壞進行評論,甚至可以評論他們是否認為公司值得辦下去。
inspire
v.①鼓舞,激起;②使產生靈感
consensus
n.(意見等)一致,一致同意
[真題例句] In a draft preface to the recommendations, discussed at the 17 May meeting, Shapiro suggested that the panel had found a broad consensus that it would be "morally unacceptable to attempt to create a human child by adult nuclear cloning."[1999年閱讀4]
[例句精譯] 在5月17日會議上討論的建議序言草案中,夏皮羅表示,專家組已取得廣泛的共識,認為"試圖利用成人細胞核去克隆嬰兒從道義上講是無法接受的"。
transmit
v.①傳播,發射;②傳遞,傳導
[真題例句] 61. From the passage we can infer that.[1995年閱讀3]
[A] electronic mail will soon play a dominant role in transmitting (①) messages
[例句精譯] 61根據本文,我們可以推斷出:
[A]電子郵件將很快在信息傳播中起主導作用
adopt
v.①采用,采納,通過;②收養
[真題例句] Too many schools adopt (①) the "win at all costs" moral standard and measure their success by sporting achievements.[1995年閱讀4]
[例句精譯] 太多的學校采用"不惜一切代價獲取成功"的道德標準并通過炫耀成績來估量孩子們是否成功。
portable
a.輕便的,手提(式)的
移動電視技術
從目前全球范圍內手機電視的業務開展來看,存在兩種比較主要的方式:流媒體和廣播。
為了開發手機電視的市場需求,部分電信系統商已經開始在手機上提供電視收視的服務,
這些服務和傳統電視并不相同,手機通過電信網絡(2.5G/2.75G/3G)連接到媒體服務器,
采用點對點流媒體方式播放,而非多點式的廣播。但當3G的使用越來越普遍后,利用大量頻率提供廉價電視內容的播放將會越來越不經濟,同時對大規模的商業運營在技術上也相當不實際。手機電視業務數據是通過衛星或地面數字廣播來進行傳輸。但是,由于廣播方式可能同時牽涉到電信運營商和廣播網絡運營商,商業模式上相對復雜,特別是在管制較嚴的國家受政策因素的影響較大,制約較多,給商用運營帶來一定的難度。
移動電視正在出現--但是市場將怎樣發展下去卻仍然不得而知
"這真是一個令人激動的時刻 --一個新的時代正在開始",Endemol 電視公司的首席創意官Peter Bazalgette這樣宣稱,他談到了眾人對移動電視的巨大興趣,這是一個在電信和媒體領域有交叉的新興產業,給設備制造商、電視內容制作者以及移動網絡運營商提供了新的機遇。
許多移動網絡運營商已經通過他們的第三代(3G)網絡用流媒體方式提供了一些電視頻道以及個人表演。在韓國,電視節目也通過衛星和地面廣播網傳送給移動電話,這遠比通過移動網絡傳輸視頻更為有效。比較近在歐洲,意大利3G移動運營商買下了一個電視頻道"第七頻道",目的是為了2006年下半年在意大利發射移動電視信號。
與此同時,蘋果電腦公司在10月發售了一款可以觀看電視的便攜式音樂播放器iPod,這個播放器大大擴展了電視網絡節目的范圍,其可以供用戶購買的、用于在移動終端的節目范圍令人驚奇,包括《迷失》、《絕望的主婦》以及《法律與秩序》。
然而,盡管有這么多的商業行為,移動電視的前景依舊是不明朗的。作為一個開端,沒有人真正清楚消費者是否樂意為它付費,即使調查顯示他們喜歡這個主意。一個名為Informa的顧問表示到2010年將會有1.23億移動電視用戶。但是有許多其他的移動技術盡管給了人們很高的期待,比較終卻沒能做出成績。就算人們真的需要在移動中觀看電視,還有兩方面的不確定因素存在著:技術和商業模式。
在現階段,移動電視主要通過3G網絡用流媒體方式來傳送,但是給每一個觀眾發送一段單獨的數據流的效果會很差,而且在長時間的運動中也會不穩定,比如說在移動電視被關閉時。因此大多數人認為3G技術只是建立起一個專門的移動電視廣播網絡的前奏,這個網絡以一種全然不同的頻率為使用聲音和數據的人傳送數字電視信號,主要分為3種:DVBH,主要在歐洲受到歡迎;DMB,正在韓國和日本被采用;以及MediaFLO,已經在美國鋪開其網絡。
與此相反,在iPod或其他便攜式視頻播放器上觀看下載的電視節目已經成為可能,而且不像那些通過3G網絡或專用移動電視網傳送的節目,人們可以在地鐵里或者網絡信號覆蓋不穩定的地區觀看儲存在iPod上的節目。這說明有些節目(比如戲劇)比較適合用下載的形式,而另一些節目(比如現場直播新聞、體育節目或現場節目)更加適合實時播送。這兩種方法有可能共存。
就像有幾種互相競爭的移動電視技術那樣,同樣存在著幾種可能的商業模式。移動運營商也許會選擇建立起他們自己的移動電視廣播網;或者他們可以組成聯盟建立起一個共享網絡;或者現有的廣播公司會建立起類似的網絡。
如果這個網絡可以贏利,關鍵問題就是廣播公司能否和移動運營商就如何劃分利益達成一致。廣播公司擁有節目內容,但掌上終端通常都由移動運營商控制,而且他們并不總是意見一致。在韓國,廣播公司聯盟上個月開播了一個免費的DMB網絡,但是這個國家的移動運營商卻并不愿意為他們的用戶提供能夠接收這個廣播信號的掌上終端,因為他們不愿破壞他們自己擁有付費移動電視業務的前景。
于是,接下來的問題就是誰將投資移動電視內容的制作:廣播公司、運營商還是廣告商?同樣的,答案很可能是"他們所有人"。
A meaty questionNO.3
IF YOU have ever longed for a meat substitute that smelt and tasted like the real thing, but did not involve killing an animal, then your order could be ready soon. Researchers believe it will soon be possible to grow cultured meat in quantities large enough to offer the meat industry an alternative source of supply.
Growing muscle cells (the main component of meat) in a nutrient broth is easy. The difficulty is persuading those cells to form something that resembles real meat. Paul Kosnik, the head of engineering at a firm called Tissue Genesis, is hoping to do it by stretching the cells with mechanical anchors. This encourages them to form small bundles surrounded by connective tissue, an arrangement similar to real muscle.
Robert Dennis, a biomedical engineer at the University of North Carolina, believes the secret of growing healthy muscle tissue in a laboratory is to understand how it interacts with its surroundings. In nature, tissues exist as elements in a larger system and they depend on other tissues for their survival. Without appropriate stimuli from their neighbours they degenerate. Dr Dennis and his team have been working on these neighbourly interactions for the past three years and report some success in engineering two of the most important-those between muscles and tendons, and muscles and nerves.
At the Touro College School of Health Sciences in New York, Morris Benjaminson and his team are working on removing living tissue from fish, and then growing it in culture. This approach has the advantage that the tissue has a functioning system of blood vessels to deliver nutrients, so it should be possible to grow tissue cultures more than a millimetre thick-the current limit.
Henk Haagsman, a meat scientist at the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands, is trying to make minced pork from cultured stem cells with the backing of Stegeman, a sausage company. It could be used in sausages, burgers and sauces.
But why would anyone want to eat cultured meat, rather than something freshly slaughtered and just off the bone? One answer, to mix metaphors, is that it would allow vegetarians to have their meatloaf and eat it too. But the sausagemeat project suggests another reason: hygiene. As Ingrid Newkirk of PETA, an animalrights group, puts it, "no one who considers what’s in a meat hot dog could genuinely express any revulsion at eating a clean cloned meat product."
Cultured meat could be grown in sterile conditions, avoiding Salmonella, E. coli, Campylobacter and other nasties. It could also be made healthier by adjusting its composition-introducing heartfriendly omega-3 fatty acids, for example. You could even take a cell from an endangered animal and, without threatening its extinction, make meat from it. Giantpanda steak, anyone?
substitute
n.代用品,代替品;v.(for)代替,替換
[真題例句] In talking to some scientists, particularly younger ones, you might gather the impression that they find the "scientific method" a substitute (n.) for imaginative thought.[1999年閱讀5]
[例句精譯] 在和一些科學家,特別是年輕科學家交談時,你可能會有這樣一種印象:他們認為"科學方法"可以代替創造性思維。
resemble
v.像,類似
tissue
n.①織物,薄絹,紙巾;②(動、植物的)組織
stretch
v.拉長,延伸;n.①一段時間,一段路程;②延伸
[真題例句] It is a remarkable record, stretching (v.) back over 70 years-yet the BBCs future is now in doubt.[1996年閱讀2]
[例句精譯] 七十多年來,BBC可謂歷程輝煌,然而現在,BBC的未來卻令人疑慮。
vessel
n.①容器,器皿;②船,艦;③管,血管
[真題例句] Todays vessels (②) can find their prey using satellites and sonar, which were not available 50 years ago.[2006年閱讀3]
[例句精譯] 今天的漁船能夠使用五十年前沒有的衛星和聲納來追蹤他們的獵物。
slaughter
n.屠宰,殘殺,屠殺;v.屠宰,殘殺,屠殺
譯文:
荷蘭科學家取得了一項用細胞"培育"肉類,并出售給人類食用的計劃的專利權。
阿姆斯特丹大學皮膚學專家維特·韋斯特霍夫稱,可以用在實驗室的培養皿中培育皮膚細胞的方法來培育肌肉組織。出售這種在實驗室中培育的肉類將使大量動物免遭屠宰。
韋斯特霍夫正在尋求投資者。他認為,可以在容積為5000升的巨型培養池中培育每塊至少50克的現成瘦肉塊。
他和另外兩位商人在全球很多地方都取得了這項計劃的專利權。專利證書稱贊這種肉沒有脂肪和軟骨。豬、牛、雞、袋鼠和鯨魚的細胞全都可以使用。
這項計劃仍需改進,因為迄今的試驗結果顯示,細胞要23天才能增加一倍。
一個食用肉類的問題
如果你曾經希望能有一種肉類的替代品,聞起來和嘗起來都像真的,但是并不是通過殺害動物得來的,那么你的要求將在不久之后得到滿足。研究者相信培養肉類馬上就可能大量生產,作為一種供給的替代品供應肉類工業。
在富有營養的肉湯中使瘦肉細胞成長(肉類的主要成分)是一件容易的事情。困難在于使這些細胞能組成像真的肉類那樣的東西。一個名為"組織創世紀"公司的工程師的首領Paul Kosnrk希望利用機械錨定技術來拉伸細胞。這種技術刺激細胞形成被結締組織環繞的細小肌肉束,和真的肌肉的組織形式相類似。
北卡羅來納州立大學的生物醫學工程師Robert Dennis相信,在實驗室中培養出健康的肌肉組織的秘密在于理解肌肉組織是怎樣和環境相互作用的。自然界中,肌肉組織作為一個更大的機體組織的基礎而存在,并且依靠這個機體中的其他組織而存在。如果沒有它們的鄰居適當的刺激,它們就將退化。Dennis博士和他的團隊在過去的三年里研究了這些相似的組織的相互作用,并且發表了在兩個比較重要的生物工程學方面成功的研究--肌肉組織和結締組織的關系,以及肌肉組織和神經組織的關系。
在紐約托羅大學的保健科學學院,Morris Benjaminson和他的團隊正在研究怎樣從魚的身體上取下活體組織,然后人工培養。這種方法的優點是,組織有一個輸送養分功能的血管系統,這樣它就可以在人工環境中生長出超過厘米數量級的厚度--這也是現今生長的極限。
荷蘭Utrecht 大學的肉類科學家Henk Haagsman正在試圖從Stegeman香腸公司得到對其碎塊豬肉的支持,這些豬肉塊源于人工生長的細胞。這種材料可以用到香腸,漢堡和壽司中去。
然而,為什么一個人想要食用人工的,而不是剛宰了并剔骨后的新鮮的肉類呢?含糊地說,這樣可以讓素食者們擁有并享用他們理想的肉塊。但是香腸肉類工程還有另外一個原因:衛生。正如動物權利組織PETA的Ingrid Newkrik指出的:"想到熱狗里面的肉原來是什么時,沒有人會在心底里反對食用干凈的克隆肉類制品"。
人工肉類可以在無菌環境中培養起來,以避免沙門氏菌,大腸桿菌,彎曲狀桿菌以及其他臟東西。也可以通過對成分的調節來使得其更加健康--例如,引進有益心臟的omega3型脂肪酸。在絲毫不威脅到物種種群的情況下,你甚至還可以從快要滅絕的動物身上取下細胞,用這些細胞來培養成肉。大熊貓肉排,還有呢?
Aircraft emissions: The dirty sky
All big ideas start life on the fringes of debate. Very often it takes a shocking event to move them into the mainstream. Until last year interest in climate change was espoused mainly by scientists and green lobbyists-and the few politicians they had badgered into paying attention. But since Hurricane Katrina, something seems to have changed, particularly in America.
There are plenty of anecdotal signs of change: Britain’s pro business Tories have turned green; Al Gore is back in fashion in America. Companies are beginning to take action and encouraging governments to do the same. Europe already has an emissions trading system (ETS) for its five dirtiest industries. In America, although the Bush administration still resists federal legislation, more and more states do not.
So far the political about global warming have centred on two polluters, smoggy factories and dirty cars. Next month the European Parliament will vote on whether to extend its emissions trading system to airlines. If it decides in favor, the whole industry will feel the impact, for it will affect not just European airlines but all those that fly into and out of the EU. Talk about this prospect soured the International Air Transport Association’s annual meeting this week in Paris. But whatever happens in the EU, the airlines look set to face vociferous demands that they should pay for their emissions.
In some ways, the airlines are an odd target for greens. They produce only around 3% of the world’s man made carbon emissions. Surface transport, by contrast, produces 22%. Europe’s merchant ships spew out around a third more carbon than aircraft do, and nobody is going after them. And unlike cars-potent symbols of individualism-airlines are public transport, jamming in as many people as they can into each plane.
What’s more, many air travelers cannot easily switch. Car drivers can hop on the train or the bus, but transatlantic travelers can’t row from London to New York. Nor can aircraft fuel be swapped for a green alternative. Car drivers can buy electro petrol hybrids but aircraft are, for now, stuck with kerosene, because its energy density makes it the only practical fuel to carry around in the air.
Yet in other ways, airlines are a fine target. They pay no tax on fuel for international flights, and therefore escape the "polluter pays" principle even more niftily than other forms of transport. Their emissions are especially damaging, too-partly because the nitrogen oxides from jet engine exhausts help create ozone, a potent greenhouse gas, and partly because the pretty trails that aircraft leave behind them help make the clouds that can intensify the greenhouse effect.
Slowly, businessmen and politicians are coming to agree with scientists. If this generation does not tackle climate change, its descendants will not think much of it. That means raising costs for all sources of pollution. Even those deceptively cheap weekend breaks cannot be exempt.
debate
v./n. 爭論,辯論
[真題例句] And so it does-and all would be well were reason the only judge in the creationism/evolution debate(n.).[1996年閱讀5]
[例句精譯] 的確如此--如果理性是創世紀論和進化論之爭的惟一標準,一切問題也就迎刃而解了。
administration
n.①管理,經營;②行政(機關,部門);③政府
[真題例句] If the Administration (②) won’t take the legislative initiative, Congress should help to begin fashioning conservation measures.[2005年閱讀2]
[例句精譯]假如行政部門沒有采取司法行動,議會就應該協助來推廣環保措施。
prospect
n.①景色;②前景,前途,展望
[真題例句] The prospects (②) for cure, though still distant, are brighter.[1994年閱讀4]
[例句精譯] 治癌前景盡管遙遠,但已越來越明朗。
odd
a.①奇數的,單的;②奇怪的,古怪的;③單只的,不成對的;④臨時的,不固定的;⑤帶零頭的,余的
[真題例句] In an odd (②) way, however, it is the educated who have claimed to have give up on ambition as an ideal.[2000年閱讀5]
[例句精譯] 然而,恰恰是那些受過良好教育的人卻不可思議地聲稱他們已經放棄了雄心壯志這一理想。
switch
n.①開關,電閘;②轉換;③枝條,鞭子;v.①轉換;②(off)判斷;③(on)接通
[真題例句] Moreover, most of the changes that companies make are intended to keep them profitable, and this need not always mean increasing productivity: switching (v.①) to new markets or improving quality can matter just as much.[1998年閱讀2]
[例句精譯] 另外,公司的大部分改革是為了贏利,而達到贏利的目的不一定非要提高生產力:轉入新的市場或改善產品質量也會有同樣的功效。
nitrogen
n.氮
[真題例句] Vitamins are similar because they are made of the same elements-usually carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, and (45:sometimes) nitrogen.[1996年完形]
[例句精譯] 各種維生素都很相似,因為它們由同樣的元素構成,一般是碳、氫、氧,有時還有氮。
descendant
n.子孫,后代
[真題例句] But however amazed our descendants may be at how far from Utopia we were, they will look just like us.[2000年閱讀2]
[例句精譯] 但是,不管我們的子孫后代對我們離烏托邦的理想境界還差多遠感到有多么驚訝,他們的樣子會同我們差不了多少。
Little Tips:
航空業加劇溫室效應,飛機排放的污染物更易導致全球氣候變暖.
航空業是氣候變暖的另一罪魁禍首。飛機每年排放3億噸溫室氣體。因飛機在高空飛行,它所排放的污染物比地面排放的污染物對大氣的影響更大,更易導致溫室效應的產生和全球氣候的變化。
如何控制航空業的溫室氣體排放:使外部成本向內部轉化。作為溫室氣體排放的大戶,各大航空公司應對其造成的環境污染支付等額的費用作為補償。
飛機排放物:骯臟的天空
所有的重要觀念都在爭論的邊緣產生,而且通常發生了令人震驚的事件后這些觀念才會成為主流。直到去年為止,關心氣候變化的人群主要是科學家以及環保主義者--以及少數一些對此表示關心的政客。但是自從卡特里娜颶風出現以來,有些事情似乎開始改變,特別是在美國。
有足夠的跡象表明變化的出現:英國的親商保守黨開始向綠黨陣營轉變;Al Gore在美國重新變得受歡迎。各個公司開始采取行動,同時也鼓勵政府這樣做。歐洲已經為它污染比較為嚴重的5個工業制定了排放交易方案。在美國,盡管布什政府仍然抵制進行聯邦立法,越來越多的州卻開始地方立法。
到目前為止有關全球變暖的政治紛爭主要集中在兩種污染者身上:排放廢氣的工廠以及污染的汽車。下個月歐洲議會將投票決定是否在航空業適用排放交易方案。如果決定是肯定的,那么整個民航業將受到影響,因為這個方案不僅影響歐洲的航線,同樣也對到達歐洲和飛離歐洲的航線產生作用。談論這種可能性使在巴黎召開的國際航空運輸協會年會的氣氛變得緊張起來。但是不管歐盟如何決定,航空公司看起來必須面對他們應當為他們排放的廢氣付費的強大的呼聲。
在某些方面,航空公司對綠色政治組織來說是一個奇怪的目標。它們排放的碳污染僅僅只占世界人為碳污染的3%。相較而言,地面運輸占了22%。歐洲商船排放的碳比飛機排放的要多三分之一左右,但是卻沒有人追究它們。而且不像汽車--利己主義的重要標志--飛機是公共交通,在每架飛機內塞入盡可能多的人。
何況許多乘飛機出行的人無法那么容易地改乘其他交通工具。小汽車司機可以乘火車或者公車,但是一個橫穿大西洋的旅行者不可能從倫敦劃船到紐約。同樣的,航空燃料也不能用無污染的替代品來替換。小汽車司機可以購買電力汽油混合動力的汽車,但是飛機只能用煤油,因為它的能量密度使其成為唯一可以在空中攜帶的燃料。
但是從其他方面來說,航空公司又是一個很好的攻擊目標。他們不為國際飛行中的燃料付稅,從而比起其他運輸工具來更多地從"污染者付費"的原則中逃脫。而且他們的排放物特別具有破壞性,部分原因是噴氣式發動機排放的氮氧化合物促使溫室氣體臭氧的合成,部分原因是飛機飛過后留下的漂亮尾煙幫助云層形成從而加劇溫室效應。
慢慢地,生意人和政治家們都開始同意科學家的看法。如果這一代人不解決氣候變化的問題,那下一代人也不會重視。這意味著將為所有形式的污染付出更高的成本。就算是現在似乎很便宜的周末旅行也不能例外地變得昂貴。
Behind the bleeding edge
MANKIND’S progress in developing new gizmos is often referred to as the "march of technology". That conjures up images of constant and relentless forward movement orchestrated with military precision. In reality, technological progress is rather less orderly. Some technologies do indeed improve at such a predictable pace that they obey simple formulae such as Moore’s law, which acts as a battle plan for the semiconductor industry. Other technologies proceed by painful lurches-think of thirdgeneration mobile phones, or new versions of Microsoft Windows. And there are some cases, particularly in the developing world, when technological progress takes the form of a leapfrog.
Such leapfrogging involves adopting a new technology directly, and skipping over the earlier, inferior versions of it that came before. By far the bestknown example is that of mobile phones in the developing world. Fixedline networks are poor or nonexistent in many developing countries, so people have leapfrogged straight to mobile phones instead. The number of mobile phones now far outstrips the number of fixedline telephones in China, India and subSaharan Africa.
There are other examples. Incandescent light bulbs, introduced in the late 1870s, are slowly being displaced in the developed world by more energyefficient lightemitting diodes (LEDs), in applications from traffic lights to domestic lighting. LEDs could, however, have an even greater impact in parts of the developing world that lack mains power and electric lighting altogether. LEDs’ greater energy efficiency makes it possible to run them from batteries charged by solar panels during the day.
Being behind the "bleeding edge" of technological development can sometimes be a good thing, in short. It means that early versions of a technology, which may be buggy, unreliable or otherwise inferior, can be avoided. America, for example, was the first country to adopt colour television, which explains why American television still looks so bad today: other countries came to the technology later and adopted technically superior standards.
The lesson to be drawn from all of this is that it is wrong to assume that developing countries will follow the same technological course as developed nations. Having skipped fixedline telephones, some parts of the world may well skip desktop computers in favour of portable devices, for example. Entire economies may even leapfrog from agriculture straight to hightech industries. That is what happened in Israel, which went from citrus farming to microchips; India, similarly, is doing its best to jump straight to a hightech service economy.
Those who anticipate and facilitate leapfrogging can prosper as a result. Those who fail to see it coming risk being jumped over. Kodak, for example, hit by the sudden rise of digital cameras in the developed world, wrongly assumed that it would still be able to sell oldfashioned film and film cameras in China instead. But the emerging Chinese middle classes leapfrogged straight to digital cameras-and even those are now outnumbered by camera phones.
precision
n.精確,精確度
[真題例句] The tests themselves are merely tools, with characteristics that can be measured with reasonable precision under specified conditions.[1995年翻譯]
[例句精譯] 這些測試本身只是一種工具,其各種特性是可以在規定的條件下用相當的精度來測定的。
skip
v.跳,蹦,急速改變,跳讀,遺漏,跳躍;n.跳躍
inferior
a.①(to)下等的,下級的;②差的,次的;n.下級,晚輩
[真題例句] He will not do so for long, for mercifully the public has the good sense not to buy the inferior (a.②) article more than once.[1995年閱讀1]
[例句精譯] 他這樣做的時間不會長,因為慶幸的是,公眾有良好的判斷力,他們不會一而再、再而三地去購買劣質商品。
version
n.①型,版本;②譯本,譯文;③說法,看法;④(某種)形式
[真題例句] And if scientists have yet to create the mechanical version (④) of science fiction, they have begun to come close.[2002年閱讀2]
[例句精譯] 如果科學家們還沒有在機械上實現科幻小說的幻想,那么他們也已經很接近這個目標了。
assume
v.①假裝;②假定,設想;③采取,承擔;④呈現;⑤以為,認為
[真題例句] (71) Actually, it isnt, because it assumes (②) that there is an agreed account of human rights, which is something the world does not have.[1997年翻譯]
[例句精譯] (71)事實并非如此,因為這種問法是以人們對人的權利達成共識為基礎的,而這種共同認識并不存在。
[真題例句] (41:Neither) kind of sleep is at all wellunderstood , but REM sleep is (42:assumed) (⑤) to serve some restorative function of the brain.[1995年完形]
[例句精譯] 我們對兩種形式的睡眠了解都不多,但是人們認為REM睡眠對大腦起著某種康復功能。
facilitate
v.使變得(更)容易,使便利
[真題例句] Technology has facilitated the sharing of information and the storage and delivery of information, thus making more information available to more people.[1995年閱讀3]考試大收集整理
[例句精譯] 技術的發展促進了信息分享、存儲和傳遞,這就使更多的人得到更多的信息。
emerge
v.浮現,出現
[真題例句] Emerging from the 1980 census is the picture of a nation developing more and more regional competition, as population growth in the Northeast and Midwest reaches a near standstill.[1998年閱讀4]
[例句精譯] 1980年美國人口普查表明:隨著東北部和中西部人口增長近乎停止,地區間的競爭越來越激烈了。
Little Tips:
后發優勢理論:發生變革的當代, 發展中國家完全有可能通過“蛙跳”實現對發達國家的趕超。從發展中國家的角度來看,新增長理論無外乎解釋了兩個經濟現象:一個是“經濟趨異”的原因,即發展中國家知識存量低于發達國家的“后發劣勢”;二是“經濟趕超”的途徑,即發展中國家利用知識外溢和技術跳躍實現經濟趕超的“后發優勢”,具體而言是指,發展中國家通過選擇性吸收和學習,可在短短幾十年內跳躍式地獲得發達國家用幾百年才獲得的知識存量。
落后于尖端
當談到人類在某些新發明上取得進展時,人們往往會提到“技術行軍”。這不禁讓人眼前浮現一幅幅如軍隊般整齊排列、源源不斷、表情嚴肅地向前邁進的景象。事實上,技術的進步很少有步調一致的情形。的確,有些技術的進步是以一種可預測的節奏進行著,他們遵循摩爾定律般簡單的公式,好比是半導體工業的設計圖紙。其他技術則往往舉步維艱、坎坷難行——看看第三代移動電話或者微軟比較新版本的視窗操作系統就明白了。而在某些情況下,尤其在發展中國家,技術進步卻是“跳躍式”的。
所謂“跳躍式”的進步就是跨越早期略顯陳舊的技術而直接采用新技術。迄今,比較深入人心的例子恐怕就是發展中國家的移動電話了。在許多發展中國家,固話網絡發展落后甚至就沒有。正因為如此,這些國家的人們便直接“跑步進入”移動電話時代。如今,在中國、印度和非洲撒哈拉沙漠以南地區手機的數量遠遠超過固定電話。
這兒還有一個例子。在發達國家里,從交通信號燈到家用照明燈,節能型LED燈正慢慢地取代19世紀70年代末引進的白熾燈。然而,在那些缺少電力網絡和照明的發展中國家,LED可能已扮演更加重要的角色。憑借更高的能效,LED可以通過太陽能電池供能全天候工作。
總之,尖端技術發展落后有時也未必是壞事。也就是說,技術落后可以避免某項技術在發展初期可能不成熟、不可靠或者較粗糙所造成的麻煩。例如,美國是第一個使用彩色電視的國家,這也就解釋為什么時至今日美國的電視機看起來還是那么糟糕;其他國家發展該項技術起步較晚,但采用的是更先進的技術工藝。
而種種技術跳躍也帶來了啟示:如果認為發展中國家會重復發達國家走過的技術發展歷程,那就大錯特錯了。比如對世界上某些國家來說,既然已經跨越了固定電話,那么跨越臺式進入便攜式計算機時代或許也理所當然;甚至有可能整個國家從農業經濟直接轉向高科技產業。以色列便是例子,它從管理橘子園轉變為生產微芯片;而印度也同樣竭盡所能躋身高技術服務業。
早作準備并為之提供便利可以坐享技術跳躍帶來的繁榮;而反應遲鈍則意味著冒被他人趕超的危險。例如柯達,之前已經在發達國家內遭到數碼相機的突襲而先敗了一陣,卻依然錯誤地判斷老式膠卷和相機能夠在中國幫其挽回頹勢。但是,中國新興的中產階級們紛紛提前跨入了數碼相機時代——而且現在,甚至連數碼相機也被帶有攝像功能的手機趕超了。
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